By-lined Article

Suspension of Russian energy supplies could lead to a recession

– In a by-lined article, the GCEE explains the risks associated with dependence on Russian energy sources and possible measures to end the dependence and to reduce the effects of a suspension of Russian energy supplies in the short term.

Forecast

Outlook for the German economy in Germany has worsened sharply

– Updated Economic Outlook for 2022 and 2023: The German Council of Economic Experts has lowered its outlook for 2022 and expects a GDP growth of 1.8% in Germany. For 2023, the Council expects a growth rate of 3.6%.

Forecast

Analysis: Effects of an import stop of Russian energy supplies

– Background information: The German Council of Experts discusses in detail the effects of a possible end to energy supplies from Russia on energy security and economic output.

Report

Economy: Supply-side bottlenecks dampen growth

– Annual Report 2021/22, Chapter 1 (Download)

Working Paper

A unified approach for jointly estimating the business and financial cycle, and the role of financial factors

– Working Paper 02/2021 by Tino Berger, Julia Richter and Benjamin Wong (Download)

Forecast

German economy resilient despite prolonged shutdown: further recovery expected in the summer

– The German Council of Economic Experts has revised its growth forecast for 2021 downwards and expects a GDP growth of 3.1 % in Germany. In the euro area, the GCEE expects the GDP to grow by 4.1 % this year.